On Tuesday, there may not be any more important situation for Democrats to win from Florida.
Democrats must keep every Senate seat they can – and Finnish Senator Bill Nelson is in his life struggle against Republican Rick Scott. A democratic governor could have a huge impact on the redrafting of state debt charts and the promotion of Medicaid's expansion, and Democrat Andrew Gillum is activating Florida's new and minority voters.
The enthusiasm for Gillum is visible, and some believe it could boost the whole popular ticket.
"It is likely to increase the turnout in democratically elected constituencies that have traditionally not been proven," said Mac Stipanovich, a lobbyist spokesman and a long-standing Republican general in Florida. "At the end of the day, it is the way it will always be, it is going to reduce attendance.
The lesson is fundamentally difficult for Democrats. They must mobilize voters who usually do not end up voting in the middle of the year – new voters, black voters, a more conservative Latino base and recently transplanting Puerto Rican voters. Meanwhile, Republicans may also be able to count on raising older white retired people who have moved to the state to vote for their nominees.
Stipanovic says it's worth watching heavy democratic Broward County on Tuesday night. If there is such a thing there is in presidential elections, this is very good for Gillum. If the turnout is high in the Miami Dharma and Palm Beach counties, this is even better for the Democrats.
Florida's declining, complex demography is soon explained
Florida is one of the states that seems to be the primary ground for Democrats, but it is often not. The Trump won the state with only one point in 2016.
The state has a huge, changing population that includes 64% white-registered voters, 16% Spanish-speaking voters and another 13% black. It has a large population of retired people, but also a large number of young people. (Older voters tend to vote higher than the younger).
"I think that in the last 10 to 12 years, Florida has been operating as a self-correcting scale," said long-time Democrat consultant Steve Schale. In other words, just one force seems to shake the state of sunshine in a more democratic direction, another seems to push in that direction.
Here are the demographic forces that have been analyzed and briefly explained.
Florida is a retired paradise that explains why President Trump remains (relatively) popular in this swing, certainly more than in many other motives such as Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Michigan in 2016.
The fact that pushes behind the Democrats' profits is an important population of white retired people who helped Trump deliver a victory in 2016. Trump's approval rating fell slightly in Florida from 2016 but is still clearly positive, the tracer of Morning Consult.
Because retirees come to Florida from across the country, it is important to remember that the elderly, white, retired "Florida voters" are really just conservative voters from all over America. And they are trustworthy in the voting chamber. a benefit for the Republicans and a problem for the Democrats.
The white number of voters is the one who watches Schale every election night and is now optimistic that Gillum can get everything he needs to win.
"He's also doing well with the whites," said Schale. "It does better than Obama in 2012."
The black vote
The fight has become a flashpoint on the Florida governor's race. Gillum is a young black democrat with local ties and inspirational story. And he blames Trump and his Republican opponent Ron Dean from the wreck of the games during the election.
Trump recently summoned Gillum as a "thief" in connection with a FBI corruption investigation in the Tallahassee government (Gillum is the mayor of Tallahassee), and DeSantis once called voters not to "make this cushion." This has many in the black community of Florida outraged, and could intensify participation.
Black voters tend to vote in blue, so they are a basic demographic item for Democrats. It is mostly a matter of removing them and there is a lot of evidence that they are leaving to reach the polls this year, both to vote for Gillum and to reprimand the Trump and his rhetoric. There was already evidence of this in the primary, according to the Taby Bay Times.
In the 2010 primary, only 14% of the registered black Democrats voted. In 2014, 18%. In August, voter turnout among black Democrats rose 32% – higher than other Democrats.
Dwight Bullard, political director of New Florida Majority, said that while Florida's black voters are traditionally underestimated, the enthusiasm for Gillum is everywhere.
"People are adopting their own campaign style for Andrew Gillum," he said. "We have seen frescoes emerging, someone created a Gillum mixtape, voters who generally do not ask questions … they have no fixed or ignore these calls."
The vote of the Latins
The Spanish and Latin populations of Florida are an important part of the state electorate. account for 16-17% of registered state voters. However, attendance and participation in parties can be difficult. Despite the conventional wisdom that the Spanish-speaking voters tend to vote democratically, the Cuban American community in Miami tends to touch more Republican, and some of the headquarters of this House are represented by moderate Republicans.
Republican Rick Scott, the current governor now running for the US Senate, is doing a great job for Spanish-speaking voters and two polls published in early September showed that Nelson's leader with the group – polls later in September showed him Nelson between the Spaniards.
And in the governor's race, there is one reason that DeSantis calls Gillum a socialist and makes a comparison with the Venezuelan dictatorship. is trying to scare older voters of the Spanish-speaking and Latin people who remember life under communist and socialist governments in their countries of origin to vote for Republicans.
"It is obviously ridiculous to suggest that he is a socialist," said Democratic advisor Mac Stipanovich. "I would agree that Medicare is socialist. Tell me who politician in America is against Medicare. You do. You are talking about a difference to some extent, not a difference in kind. "
The Puerto Rican was displaced by Hurricane Maria
Both parties also steal Puerto Rico's in Florida displaced by Hurricane Maria, hoping to help the elections. But the chances of this group being an important block of voting may not be as likely as some hope. As Tora Golshan from Vox wrote:
Depending on who you are asking, somewhere between 50,000 and 300,000 people left for Florida after the hurricane. Keep in mind the ages of the people and how likely they are to vote, and Nate Cohn of the New York Times says the influx of new Floridians could potentially affect results by half a percentage point.
Still, half the percentage in a nearby match can also make the difference between winning and losing.
Democrats can get a boost from Trump's inflammatory rhetoric, suggesting that the high number of deaths from Maria was a falsely inflated number (it was not.) There is also a lot of anger in the community of the lack of US response to the hurricane recovery and the Trump does not seem to let the issue go.
Democrats hope younger voters of the Spanish-speaking, Latin American and the Portuguese people will talk with their most conservative parents and grandparents and convince them to vote for Democrats.
"We see a greater willingness to have these tough talks," said Bullard.
The vote of young people
Another element of uncertainty is the vote of the Florida youth. Florida is also experiencing a revival of young politically active voters motivated by gymnastics at the 2018 Forum Park, which killed 17 employees and students.
"You had an amazing group of activists who came out" after filming, said Florida Peninsula's Executive Director, Juan Penalosa. The idea was not only about activism but also about voting, and Penalosa believes it could be a powerful force to motivate young people to participate in the state.
Not only are Parkland students. The NextGen team associated with Tom Steyer is also organizing college students in college and historically black colleges and universities. So far, 50,000 youngsters and counting have only been registered by NextGen's efforts.
"You have a growing student population," said Bullard. "This makes the electorate a bit more progressive, a little leftist. I think what we saw in 2016 was the failure to attract these voters."
Andrew Gillum could be the right politician for the moment – and could bolster senator Bill Nelson
Although Trump's credit rating is not exactly underwater in Florida, there is also a wave of popular movement in the state, led by a new, diverse electorate. And long-standing Democratic Florida think that Gillum is the right candidate to fit into the political moment.
"It's not a disinancing idea of what's supposed to be a state candidate," said Bullard. "It is someone who comes from the normal principles. Public school kid did good. "
Former Vice President Joe Biden recently collapsed for Gillum in Florida and Schale noted that the two were bombed by people who wanted to tighten their hands.
"He was a bit comical, seeing Andrew Gillum and Biden walking through a rope line," laughed Schale. "There is no doubt that there is more enthusiasm for a while."
Some claim that there is more enthusiasm for Gillum, because beyond the fact that he is a charismatic fighter, he takes a progressive attitude without problems on issues like Medicare-for-all, pouring $ 1 billion into public schools in Florida and raising them teachers' wages and forbidding the weapons of attack.
"Democrats have consistently put this modest Democrat. We have lost every time shy of 100,000 votes," said Olivia Bercow, deputy director of communications for NextGen and a local Florida. "You have to put it on top of the ticket, you have to be excited and you have to give it to someone who will take it."
Some in Florida believe they could have an impact on both the governor's struggle and the struggle of Democrat Bill Nelson's Senate. There is not much enthusiasm for Nelson, who has been in charge since 2000 and is not exactly the most imaginative candidate.
"I do not think people like Nelson, I just do not think he's devoted to him," said Stipanovich. "I think the best thing that happened to Bill Nelson recently is Andrew Gillum's nomination, and he will help Senator Nelson if he pulls him over the line I do not know."