Final polls favor Democrats, but the margin is shrinking


Democrats have an intermediate rate, but remember in 2016 and do not get comfortable, says columnist Paul Brandus.

The figures from the final polls for the 2018 elections are in orbit, two days before the ballot papers are deposited in one of the most divided and monitored mid-term media of recent memory.

All in all, the figures show the same possible result as the polls have shown for months: that despite the strong economy with the Republicans controlling the Capitol and the White House, Democrats are favored in general ballots. However, the Democratic leader in a general race has shaken a few months ago.

ONE the poll by ABC News and Washington Post released on Sunday that 52 percent would elect a general Democrat for a general Republican for Congress while 44 percent would elect the Republican.

A poll of the NBC News / Wall Street Journal found a similar result, with 50% of potential voters favoring a democratically controlled Congress and 43% favoring a Republican. Among all registered voters, the fight is further tightened, at a six point lead for Democrats.

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As always, the outcome of the elections will depend on voter turnout and the two polls have found great enthusiasm and interest in election of voters.

Eighty percent told ABC / Washington Post MPs that they are "sure to vote" or had already voted, from 65% in the interim in 2014. Among the registered voters, the NBC / Wall Street Journal poll found that 70% much to the elections (scoring interest nine or ten on a scale from one to ten), from 61% in the last three mid-elections.

Closing figures reflect a steady improvement for Republicans since the end of 2017 when RealClearPolitics's average poll had President Donald Trump's party follow the Democrats with 13 points in a general congressional ballot. Now, the average democratic leadership has been cut to 7 points.

"It's closed, it's a more competitive race," said Republican Bill McInturff in NBC News. "But for the Republicans, it feels slightly less than you would like to be for a national election."

The ABC / Washington Post poll found that the Democrats had dropped dramatically amongst the demographic groups relying on support. While the latest two polls showed that women favor Democrats with more than 20% margin, this infection has fallen to 14 in the most recent survey. And the poll showed huge transparency in supporting Democrats among independent women voters, from the edge of 33 points in October so far in two points.

The republican edge between white men without a college rose from 27 points in October to 39 points.

Evidence shows that voters feel better about the country's situation and the economy than they did in 2017. At the end of last year, only 29% of respondents in the NBC / Wall Street Journal poll reported that the country was heading in the right direction. That number has risen to 38 percent, over 37 percent when Trump took over and 32 percent at this point in the Obama administration.

The ABC / Washington Post poll found that 65% had a positive image of the economy, from 51% just before the Trump launch. That is the highest level for the poll, as it reached 70% in January 2001.

Trump's approval rating was 46% in the NBC / Wall Street Journal poll, with 52% of respondents voicing their disapproval. Former President Barack Obama was in 47 percent approval and 47 percent disapproval in the same vote at this point of his presidency. Although the chairman is not in the poll, 31% said they intended to vote in favor of Trump, while 38% would vote to mark their opposition.

The ABC / Washington Post was not as positive about the Trump. Only 40 percent of respondents in this poll gave the Trump's performance, while 53 percent said it was rejected.

The ABC / Washington Post poll was conducted from 29 October to 1 November with a margin of error of +/- 3%. The NBC / Wall Street Journal poll was held on 1-3 November with a margin of error of +/- 3.1% for registered voters and +/- 3.53% for potential voters.

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