How could Wall Street's story be re-written after November


The legacy of a steadily growing and near-capability economy Trump's most important political achievements were $ 1.5 trillion ($ 2.1 trillion) of tax cuts for businesses and the rich and a huge increase in government spending. The US budget deficit for the year to September surpassed 17% to $ 779 billion and is estimated to be close to $ 1 trillion in the current fiscal year.

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While Trump talked about another round of tax cuts and has not yet achieved the $ 1 trillion of infrastructure spending as part of his campaign platform, the margin for further figure in the lead up to the next presidential contest in 2020 is limited to today's levels debt and US deficit.

According to most US policymakers, the most likely outcome of the elections is that the Democrats will gain control of the House, but the Republicans, with the banning of something remarkable, will retain the Senate's control.

In a perverse way, "gridlock" can be a good result for markets. It would prevent the White House from doing something very radical, though it could cause Trump to become more aggressive in areas where he can use executive orders to get his way.

Most tax cuts would certainly be out of the agenda, and while the Democrats would like to see a significant increase in infrastructure spending, the question of how they would be paid would be politically burdensome.

A democratic majority in this House could also create a more toxic political environment, given the likelihood that Democrats will use a majority of the House to carry out investigations not only on Russian intervention in the last elections and the participation, if any, of a campaign in it but Trump's economic affairs.

Donald Trump's tax and spending cuts could promote established equity patterns after the mid-term elections this week.

Donald Trump's tax and spending cuts could promote established equity patterns after the mid-term elections this week.Credit:AP

A concern for investors – and an important part of the explanation for the return of last month to equity markets – would be even more focused on the White House on trade issues if its political agenda was narrowed by average results.

In recent days, Trump has made some optimistic noises about the possibility of entering into an agreement with China on trade, which would offset the tensions created by the current US $ billions of US dollars in China's exports to the US and threaten further $ 257 billion.

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Trump will meet China's Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires later this month and says both China (very badly) and the US want to make a deal.

But if the Republicans lose the House, Trump will probably be even more determined to try to ensure that the US will become "winners" – and China the humiliated loser – from the trade war.

The fall in tax deductions and the early impact of management's commercial policies on costs and profits will in themselves trigger the market record with better performance after mid-year.

There is, of course, the ongoing normalization of monetary emergency policies put in place by the Federal Reserve Bank as a response to the financial crisis – the rise in US interest rates and the contraction of the Fed's balance sheet.

The Fed has become increasingly "ridiculous" as the stimulating impact of Trump's tax cuts and spending on the US economy have become more prominent.

Among its efforts to overcome the inflationary curve and the simple impact of US $ 1 trillion US debt issuance on a market where neither Fed nor China is so important purchasers of US debt as before, rates will continue to rise to as the US growth slows. Rising interest rates do not help stock markets.

A vacuum of Washington can be a good result for the markets.

A vacuum of Washington can be a good result for the markets.Credit:AP

It is, of course, possible that the Republicans retain the control of both chambers of Congress, so over the next two years they could find more tax cuts, more aggressive liberation and a new attempt to overthrow social welfare programs and spending.

Markets would probably positively respond to the continuation of the status quo, although they might be a little bit nervous that an unconditional victory would encourage Trump to double its trade, tax and deregulation agendas.

This could lead to even more violent clashes between the US and its trading partners and a confrontation between the administration and the Fed, another scenario that would make it unlikely that the history of the stock will re-emerge.

Listen to Stephen Bartholomeusz to discuss the impact of the mid-term elections on the markets at the last event Please explain the podcast.

Stephen is one of Australia's most respected journalists. He was recently co-authored and affiliated with the Business Spectator website and editor and senior journalist at The Australian.