COLUMBUS, Ohio – Although Republicans are all guaranteed to hold a steady hold in Ohio and the Senate, the next week's parliamentary elections are likely to be the most interesting for years.
First, Democrats are likely to win seats in Ohio (and possibly in the Senate) for the first time in a decade. It will not be enough to gain control, but if the Democrats earn at least seven seats at the headquarters, they will erase the over-vote of 60 House GOP deputies that allows the GOP to override government vetoes and put measures in state voting without democratic votes.
And perhaps even more importantly, the results on Tuesday will show if, after a monthly civil war between the House Democrats, several GOP allies of the state-owned Larry Householder will be elected to give him a shot to shoot down the next meeting the speaker of the House by the current speaker Ryan Smith.
All 99 Ohio seats have been voted on Tuesday, just like 17 out of 33 Ohio Senate seats. But thanks to ridicule, only a fraction of these areas are really competitive. And almost all of them fit into a pattern: they are suburban positions held by Democrats of limited duration, although Hillary Clinton won them in 2016.
Here's a closer look at the top 12 Ohio General Assembly fights to keep track of.
Province 3 of the Senate
Where is: East Franklin County, including the areas of southwest and central Columbus
Republican Anne Gonzales, four-year state representative and realtor from Westerville
Democratic Tina Maharath, economic analyst at Canal Winchester
Percentage of the region voted for Donald Trump in 2016: 41.8 percent
What you need to know about the fight: This may be the most curious competitive legislative fight in Ohio. Maharath, who, with his own confession, has a "troubled" past, was not adopted by the Democratic Party of Ohio or by the Democrats of Franklin County (he won the Democratic nomination by definition, since the party-favored candidate did not submit the 50 signatures had to run). But the area itself is full of Democrats, leading Republicans to buy at least $ 800,000 in ads that destroy Maharath. Gonzalez is considered to be the little favorite here, but he could end up being one of the Ohio Senate's closest matches at Election Night.
What to Watch at Election Night: How high the democratic turnout is around the region.
Province 5 of the Senate
Where is: Miami and Preble Areas, South County Darke, most of Dayton
Democrat Paul Bradley, an administrator at Dayton College of Antioch, who served as Sen. Sherrod Brown of Southwest Ohio
Republican Stephen Huffman, a Tipp City doctor who has served two terms in Ohio.
Percentage of the region voted for the Trump in 2016: 50.9 percent
What you need to know about the fight: In 2014, Republican Bill Beagle (who is restricted this year) won his re-election here in one of the most expensive and tough campaign races. In 2018, it has become another tough battle. The region is democratically friendly on paper, as it covers most of Dayton. But it is balanced by the democratic votes in rural areas of the region – President Donald Trump won the region by more than 5 percentage points in 2016. Like most Ohio lawmakers this year, Republicans have sunk much more money in this fight than Democrats: nearly $ 1 million from October 25, compared to $ 231,000 of Democrats. This is far less than what was spent on behalf of Democratic candidate Dee Gillis against Beagle in 2014.
What to Watch at Election Night: Whether the democratic turnout in Dayton and Trotwood West Side is high enough to overcome democratic support in rural provinces.
Provincial Senate 13
Where is: Huron and Lorain Counties
Republican Nathan Manning, a North Ridgeville attorney and a state representative twice
Republican Sharon Sweda, title owner and former real estate broker from Amherst
Liberal Homer S. Tauf, a lawyer at Vermilion
Percentage of the region voted for the Trump in 2016: 50.3 percent
What you need to know about the fight: Manning is trying to swap seats this year with his mother, Republican Senator Gayle Manning. The name Manning gives Nathan a leg up, but the hundreds of thousands of dollars spent by the Senate GOP campaign show that the Republicans worry about him. The Democrats meanwhile have pointed out that Manning was then accompanied by the speaker Cliff Rosenberger on a trip to Europe with lobbyists, a trip to which the FBI focused on Rosenberger's research, although Manning said it had not been investigated .
What to Watch at Election Night: Elections and election results from the historic Democratic Lorain – especially how much of the Union's vote supports Sweda.
District 19 of the Senate
Where is: Delaware and Knox counties, part of northern Franklin County
Republican Andrew Brenner, a four-year state spokesman from Powell
Green Gary Cox, Columbus attorney
Democrat Louise Valentine, consumer analyst at Westerville
Percentage of the region voted for the Trump in 2016: 48.7 percent
What you need to know about the fight: In 2014, Republican Kris Jordan won here with more than 60% of the votes. This year, it's probably the most competitive State Senate Senate in Ohio. The viability of Valentine's Day was demonstrated (and reinforced) by Democratic Danny O'Connor in the August special elections for the 12th Ohio Congress District. (Connor lost the fight but won the majority in the SD-19.) Brenner, who chairs the House's Education Committee, was a polarized figure that brought less than a third of Valentine's money.
What to Watch at Election Night: Either Republicans in the counties of North Delaware and Knox will prove to be both for Brenner and Democrats in County Franklin and (increasingly blue) of southern Delaware.
District 33 of the Senate
Where is: Mahoning and the counties of Columbiana
Republican John Boccieri, state spokesman, former commander and pilot from Poland, Ohio
Republican Michael Rulli, business manager for the Rulli Bros. grocery store and a member of the Leetonia School Board.
Percentage of the region voted for the Trump in 2016: 53 percent
What you need to know about the fight: In a year where Democrats are threatening to reverse the country's legislative seats, this is a surprise for the Republicans. It is a historically democratic region, but Trab won here in 2016 with the support of many Democrats. Both candidates have a decent name recognition – Boccieri from his previous campaigns, Rulli from his grocery stores. Boccieri spends a lot more money on Rulli and still has a credible democratic base in Youngstown, but both sides intend to watch this fight closely on Tuesday night.
What to Watch at Election Night: How many Democrats in the area that Trump claimed in 2016 become referendum democrats in 2018.
Residence area 6
Where is: Cleveland suburbs in southern and eastern County Cuyahoga
Democrat Phil Robinson, senior vice president for City Year, a non-profit education
Republican Jim Trakas, member of the Independent City Council, former state spokesman and former Cuyhoga County GOP chair
Percentage of the region voted for the Trump in 2016: 47.1 percent
What you need to know about the fight: Robinson was defeated when he ran in the area two years ago against Republican Marlene Anielski. However, Anielski is confined this time and Democrats are optimistic. Robinson can win an area that Hillary Clinton has earned 2 points. But the Republicans are confident that Trakas, an ally of the House, will win, claiming he has a better ID and has more money than Robinson.
What to Watch at Election Night: Turn out. The higher it is, the greater the odds of Robinson.
Residential area 19
Where is: Northeastern Franklin County, including suburban Columbus Gahanna and New Albany
Republican Tim Barhorst, insurance agent of Westerville
Democratic Mary Lightbody, K-12 science professor and lecturer at the University of Ohio State University campus
Percentage of the region voted for the Trump in 2016: 42.6 percent
What you need to know about the fight: This is one of the three provinces of Franklin province held by Democrats, with the limited condition that the Democrats hope to return this year. Lightbody has launched a good campaign and at least one campaign poll shows it ahead. But it's not an easy victory for Democrats, especially as an outside team that is an ally of the Householder has bought ads on behalf of Barhorst.
What to Watch at Election Night: How far is the hostility of women trained by the college against Trab to extend to a state legislative struggle.
Where is: Northwest Franklin County, including the Columbus suburbs of Dublin and Worthington
Republican Stu Harris, Member of the Board of Dublin and a proxy for Nationwide Insurance
Republican Beth Liston, internal physician and pediatrician from Dublin
Percentage of the region voted for the Trump in 2016: 40.7 percent
What you need to know about the fight: Both sides believe that this is a neck and neck fight and may be the most difficult seat of the Franklin Party to hold for Republicans thanks to the large number of women attending college and independent voters. Harris, a supporter of the Hussites, is relatively well known as a board member and has declared a political message of politics. But Danny O'Connor won 62% of the vote here in August, and many O'Connor volunteers dealt with Liston's candidacy during the special election campaign. Republican incumbent Mike Duffey is limited.
What to Watch at Election Night: How well does Liston count as an indication of how far the suburbs of Columbus tend to the Democrats.
Residential area 24
Where is: West Franklin County, including the suburbs of Columbus Hilliard and Upper Arlington
Republican Allison Russo, a health policy researcher from Upper Arlington
Republican Erik Yassenoff, former member of the Upper Arlington City Council
Percentage of the region voted for the Trump in 2016: 42.5 percent
What you need to know about the fight: While the match is considered close enough, Yassenoff, considered an ally of the Householder, is seen as the little favorite. In an area where most Republicans tend to support Governor John Kasich more than the Trump, Yassenoff (formerly Kasich Political Advisor) worked to distract himself from the chair. But in an area where Clinton won 10 points, it remains to be seen how many voters who are not satisfied with the Trump will only be deactivated by "(R)" next to Yassenoff's name. The head of the GOP, Jim Hughes, is a limited term.
What to watch the election night: Upper Arlington, which historically has a higher voter turnout than other parts of the region.
Residential area 28
Where is: Hamilton Northeast, including the suburbs of Cincinnati Blue Ash and Montgomery
Republican Jonathan Dever, a diplomatic representative of the state and a lawyer from Madeira
Democratic Jessica Miranda, an insurance company from Cincinnati
Percentage of the region voted for the Trump in 2016: 45.5 percent
What you need to know about the fight: This is another suburban area that is held in the GOP (this time in the Cincinnati area) that the Democrats want to make. In 2016, Dever beat Miranda with 57 percent of the vote, but both parties see their rematch as the top race this year. Miranda does not have her money, but the site is blue – she voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, but Clinton in 2016.
What to Watch at Election Night: Either the large black and female voter population in the region proved to be Miranda.
Where is: Northeast County, including Hudson, Twinsburg and Stow
Republican Mike Rasor, member of the Stow City Council and lawyer
Republican Casey Weinstein, a member of the Hudson City Council, and client director for research and consultancy Gartner, Inc.
Percentage of the region voted for the Trump in 2016: 47.6 percent
What you need to know about the fight: This is formulated to be a highly competitive race. Both candidates have put the money they need to compete. Clinton has earned less than 1 percentage point here, so Rasor (another candidate aligned with the Householder) has the job of separating himself from the president in the minds of the voters.
What to Watch at Election Night: How much support does Weinstein get from suburban female voters who have been struggling with Trump?
Where is: Preble County and Montgomery West / Central County
Democrat Dan Foley, Commissioner of Montgomery County
Republican J. Todd Smith, a pastor and responsible representative of the state
Percentage of the region voted for the Trump in 2016: 51.4 percent
What you need to know about the fight: This fight makes our list because it is expected to be the probability of Democrats getting a Ohio seat this year. While Smith is technically the incumbent, he was appointed only a few months ago and has collected about $ 18,000 since the end of last month (although he has received some help from outside teams). Foley, meanwhile, is relatively well-known as the prefect of the county.
What to Watch at Election Night: Democratic attendance at Trotwood, Dayton and Harrison Township.