"We will win so much, you will be so sick and tired of winning," promised Donald Trump for the campaign campaign before his election. And as the president faces his first average vote, the big test for Trump will be if voters are sick to win or get sick.
In many ways, the US economy has grown under the Trump. Unemployment is low since the first landing on a moon, stock markets remain close to record highs, business confidence is up, trade agreements that have hit Trump as "unfair" have been rewritten. On Friday, the government's recent report shows wages are rising at the highest rate since 2009.
If the Republicans reach the vote on Tuesday and outstrip their expectations – despite the trump of Trump – then, no doubt, many experts will use the campaign quote elaborated by James Carville, a general in Bill Clinton, to explain the outcome: It's the economy, "
Stress pushes his tough line on immigration harder than his financial record. Polls show that economic issues are becoming less important when the economy is on a sound footing.
Migration can play well at its base, but voters will decide on these elections and the economy is still a big issue. According to Gallup, in September, 13% of US voters rated economic issues as their highest priority, equal to the number of immigrants concerned.
Forced voters can look at the numbers while deciding who gets their votes. The top line for "Trumponomics" looks good. A deeper dive exposes some unpleasant facts about the US economy, but the titles could be enough to push the Republicans into the office.
The US unemployment rate hit 3.7% in September, its lowest rate since 1969. The US has now been adding jobs for 96 consecutive months, the longest job growth since the archives began. The majority of these jobs were added under Barack Obama's presidency, but, hey … is no longer president.
But what jobs have been added? Wage growth has been behind rising employment from the recession, suggesting that the types of jobs added by the US are lower and that, thanks in part to the fall of trade unions, employers continue to take the lead in wage negotiations despite the narrow labor market.
The mine has added 53,000 jobs over the past year. The trump gave anxiety to end the "war on coal". But compare this to health care, where there are many low-paid jobs, which has added 302,000 jobs.
The proof is in the pockets of the workers. The October work report showed wages rising at an annual rate of 3.1%, the highest rate since 2009, but well below the 4.2% average before the 2001 recession.
Trump has posted tweeted on stock markets 67 times – more than 10 times the number of tweets reported by Tiffany's daughter.
Under his chairmanship, Dow, S & P and Nasdaq hit the record, fueled by $ 1.5 billion in fiscal breaks, aggressive deregulation, and a strong global economy.
Now he is worried. As the Federal Reserve Bank raises interest rates, stock markets are upset and Trump has publicly attacked the Fed, an unprecedented move for chairman. China's development is declining, Europe seems once again that it is moving into the problem, some economists predict a recession next year.
And maybe Trump has to worry about where the profits of the stock markets have really gone. 10% of US households accounted for 84% of all stocks in 2016, according to NYU economist Edward Wolff. This includes all shares holding a minimum of 90% in savings savings of 401k, university funds and other investments.
So, while the stock markets have risen, the benefit has gone disproportionately to the rich. This is not the boom in housing, which has boosted the wealth of many middle-income Americans while it lasted. But if the stock markets fall, something that inevitably will be at least 90% likely to feel first, as companies cut staff to lower their costs to appease shareholders who have done so well.
Trade wars are "good and easy to earn," Trump said in March before taking on all of America's biggest trading partners in the biggest trade dispute over a generation.
To be fair with the president, the issue of trade has not yet – catastrophic as many have predicted. And Canada and Mexico, the largest US trading partners behind China, are now on the negotiating table and are working on a new deal. But China is a different issue. Relationships seem to get worse. And the EU, after calling for the ceasefire in July, is still embracing and dealing with the World Trade Organization.
Speaking to business leaders in the US, it is obvious that what is most opposed to Trump's commercial policy is uncertainty. Caterpillar, a manufacturing bell, warned earlier this month that Trump's tariffs have increased its costs. Cheese producers in Wisconsin, the US dairy capital, are glad that Canada is negotiating imports but is worried about the fact that the EU has exploited it during the conflict and that talks could be downgraded.
Trade disputes can be paused now as interim results arrive at the end but are not over. And the United States under the Trump have emerged not only as a stronghold of protectionism after decades of speculation about free trade but also as a place where politics can be rewritten by a tweet.
The Trump's $ 1.5 billion tax cutout is the only major political achievement of his presidency – yet Republicans are just reporting on the run-up to the elections. Most of the cuts went into business, and the rich and voters show that voters now trust Trump less in tax reform than they did before the bill passed.
It is clear that his original tax package has been bombed with hoi polloi. Trump has now proposed "a 10% tax cut for middle-income families … no business". The proposal does not seem to have much substance. The last tax cut has helped ease the federal deficit to $ 1. And even Republicans who have decided that deficits do not matter, after years of believing the opposite, may reduce its growth. But he recognizes that politically for the average American a tax plan that the Trump called a "middle-class bill" has not worked.
It is time for anarchist voters to disembark from the fence, but it is too early to really assess Trump's record for the economy. Trade disagreements are under way, the long-term impact of tax cuts is still being assessed. Therefore, this election cycle, if voters feel sick to win or get sick from Trab, is likely to be decided by their political inclinations rather than by the economy. By 2020 we will have a clearer assessment of Trump's legacy and we will know who really wins.